Real estate after the epidemic will be a very interesting market
Real estate after the epidemic will be a very interesting market
In the worst-case scenario, CBRE Vietnam expects the number of successful apartments sold in the whole of 2021 to be only 1/4 to 1/5 compared to the peak years of the market.
Share in a real estate seminar with the topic "Do apartments open for sale during the pandemic attract customers?" by e-newspaper Dan Tri institutions, real estate professionals said Tran Khanh Quang, who buy real estate in Vietnam still have the habit to take place see new product purchase decisions. This comes from the fact that real estate has a high value and each product is different and not the same. Therefore, the liquidity of real estate, including apartments, quickly showed signs of impact when the requirements on social distancing became increasingly strict.
The number of apartments sold is only 1/4 - 1/5 compared to the peak
Currently, some investors are looking to maintain operations by live streaming events or selling online. However, this expert assessed that the effectiveness of these methods was only about 30-40% compared to the time before the epidemic. And the new sales stop at receiving deposits, accepting reservations with a very small amount compared to the product value, usually 50-100 million VND. Along with that, the investor must have a promotion policy or technical discounts such as discounts, rewards, or extensions of payment time...
Customers visit the apartment before the time of social distancing.
In addition to the limited movement of buyers, Ms. Duong Thuy Dung - Senior Director of CBRE Vietnam - said that the decrease in the number of apartments sold also stems from the lack of supply in the market, due to the owners. investment delay sales plan.
After nearly 5 months of the market is negatively affected by the 4th epidemic, this market research unit is expected to continue to lower its forecast for apartment supply and demand for the whole year of 2021.
In the event that the epidemic is controlled in October, this unit believes that the supply of new apartments for sale this year will reach about 13,000 units in Ho Chi Minh City and 17,000 units in the Hanoi market, down 29 respectively. % and 5% compared to 2020. The absorption volume is 12,600 units and 17,000 units respectively, but the average selling price is still expected to increase by about 5% over the same period.
In the second scenario, the disease control must last until the end of this year, the number of apartments sold is only about 8,400 units in Ho Chi Minh City and 14,500 units in Hanoi, down 54% and 19% respectively year-on-year. prior to. The number of units sold is at the same level and the selling price is expected to increase by about 4%.
CBRE is inclined to the second scenario - that is, the forecast is only 1/4 to 1/5 compared to the peak periods of the apartment market. Previously, the apartment market in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi regularly recorded about 30,000-32,000 new apartments for sale in each city each year, up to 35,000 units in some years. Even in the low period of the market, the new supply fluctuates at 20,000 - 25,000 units.
"Although quite optimistic about people's demand as well as the absorption rate of some individual projects, we think that buyers in the coming time will think very carefully, whether buying to live in or buy to stay. If we look at 3 months ago, we can see that they can still be very optimistic and there is still a lot of demand. But in the last 3 months, a lot of people have to work from home, not even continue to work. work as before," said Ms. Dung.
"After the epidemic will be a very interesting market"
Talking about the financial "health" of individual real estate investors today, Mr. Tran Khanh Quang said that about 80% of investors currently have money available and are eagerly waiting for the reopening date. to find purchased products. This group is very excited to see and learn about the project, but is cautious in the decision to "lower money".
In contrast, 10-20% of investors have a need to sell real estate to solve the immediate problem after 3 months of struggling to pay bank loan interest and many other expenses. They also wait for the relaxation of the distance to sell, because if they sell in the current period, they only receive a deposit of 100-200 million dong, which can't solve anything.
"These two groups will clash, one side wants to see real estate to buy and the other side waits to open to sell, even selling at a 5-10% discount. But sellers will definitely sell and others will. After the epidemic, it will be a very interesting market, many people want to buy but the decision is still hesitant, "said Mr. Quang.
In particular, the apartment segment is forecasted not to be the preferred choice of investors today. Because investors often put more emphasis on the ability to exploit apartment rentals compared to other segments. But the ability to rent apartments in the coming period is forecasted to not be able to recover because the group of foreign investors has not returned right away while a large percentage of workers tend to return to their hometown for 3-6 months when it opens. return.
"But that's not to say that the apartment market is going down, because this segment first serves real housing needs. No matter what segment you go to invest in, people eventually return to the city center. If we have the opportunity, we also boldly buy apartments and choose projects with good prices, good investors, especially good management, "said Mr. Quang.
A CBRE representative said that the market always has a segment of buyers with huge accumulated assets and the pandemic has not affected their asset flow much. This is also a group that specializes in investing but has not had many products to spend money on in the past 1-2 years. Ms. Dung said that the products offered for sale in the coming time will receive 10-20% of buyers from this group of investors.
"But we also note that the products that investors offer for sale in the near future must be different in terms of product quality, specifications, or accompanying amenities/utilities to attract cash flow. from these special investors," Dung said.
Thanh Tâm/Dantri.com.vn